Track record

Model lean vs final result. Denominators are graded picks only; ties and cancellations are no-actions and excluded. Past results don't predict future outcomes.

All time: 41.7% (5/12)
Last 7 days: 41.7% (5/12)
Last 30 days: 41.7% (5/12)

Last 7 days · 26 picks

Houston Astros @ San Francisco Giants

Oracle Park

7:45 PM UTC

Houston Astros

49%

San Francisco GiantsModel lean

51%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market +8.5 pts home

Bullpen quality edge for Giants · leans home
Starting pitcher matchup slightly favors Houston · leans away
Underlying team quality favors Astros · leans away

Graded result

Away win · Model lean incorrect

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox

Rate Field

11:40 PM UTC

Cincinnati Reds

43%

Chicago White SoxModel lean

57%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market +0.1 pts home

Team quality gap (pythagorean record) · leans home
Bullpen freshness · leans home
Starter matchup and offense/defense trade-off · leans away

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

Truist Park

11:15 PM UTC

New York Mets

44%

Atlanta BravesModel lean

56%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market -2.2 pts home

Team quality (pythagorean record) · leans home
Starting pitcher peripherals · leans away
Bullpen freshness and quality · leans away

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

Rogers Centre

11:07 PM UTC

Boston Red SoxModel lean

51%

Toronto Blue Jays

49%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market +2.2 pts home

Starting pitcher quality gap · leans away
Bullpen fatigue · leans home
Offensive production · leans away

Graded result

Home win · Model lean incorrect

Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium

11:00 PM UTC

Seattle Mariners

44%

New York YankeesModel lean

56%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market +1.8 pts home

Team quality gap (pythagorean/baseRuns) · leans home
Defense and bullpen freshness · leans home
Missing middle-of-order power (Judge, Stanton) · leans away

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins

loanDepot park

10:40 PM UTC

Pittsburgh PiratesModel lean

51%

Miami Marlins

49%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market -3.2 pts home

Starting pitcher FIP gap · leans away
True team quality vs. record · leans away
Pirates bullpen fatigue and Oneil Cruz absence · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean incorrect

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

Comerica Park

10:40 PM UTC

Cleveland GuardiansModel lean

52%

Detroit Tigers

49%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market -5.7 pts home

Starting pitcher peripherals · leans away
Team defense · leans away
Underlying team quality (pythagorean record) · leans away

Graded result

Away win · Model lean correct

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

Petco Park

8:10 PM UTC

Milwaukee BrewersModel lean

64%

San Diego Padres

36%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market -11.7 pts home

Starting pitcher mismatch · leans away
Underlying team quality (pythagorean record) · leans away
Home field advantage · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean incorrect

Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field

7:40 PM UTC

Colorado Rockies

42%

Arizona DiamondbacksModel lean

59%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market -3.4 pts home

Team quality gap (pythagorean/baseRuns) · leans home
Bullpen and defense edge · leans home
Starting pitcher matchup · leans away

Graded result

Away win · Model lean incorrect

Tampa Bay Rays @ Athletics

Sutter Health Park

7:05 PM UTC

Tampa Bay RaysModel lean

66%

Athletics

34%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market -1.1 pts home

Starting pitcher mismatch · leans away
Underlying team quality · leans away
Bullpen fatigue · leans away

Graded result

Away win · Model lean correct

Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals

Busch Stadium

6:15 PM UTC

Philadelphia PhilliesModel lean

54%

St. Louis Cardinals

47%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market +6.7 pts home

Starting pitcher matchup · leans away
Bullpen quality · leans away
Team quality vs. record · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean incorrect

Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins

Target Field

5:40 PM UTC

Baltimore OriolesModel lean

53%

Minnesota Twins

47%

Model win probability · medium confidence · edge vs market -3.4 pts home

Starting pitcher mismatch · leans away
Bullpen workload · leans home
Team quality and injuries roughly even · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean incorrect

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field

8:10 PM UTC

Los Angeles DodgersModel lean

56%

Arizona Diamondbacks

44%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market -35.7 pts home

Underlying team quality (pythagorean/baseRuns) gap · leans away
Starting pitcher peripherals · leans away
Home park and conditions · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean incorrect

Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants

Oracle Park

8:05 PM UTC

Detroit Tigers

47%

San Francisco GiantsModel lean

53%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +9.2 pts home

Starting pitcher matchup: Webb vs. Melton · leans home
Bullpen quality · leans away
Underlying team quality (pythagorean) · leans away

Graded result

Away win · Model lean incorrect

Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

Globe Life Field

6:35 PM UTC

Baltimore Orioles

40%

Texas RangersModel lean

60%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +4.8 pts home

Starting pitcher matchup · leans home
Underlying team quality vs record · leans home
Injury impact · leans home

Graded result

Away win · Model lean incorrect

Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

Busch Stadium

6:15 PM UTC

Colorado Rockies

39%

St. Louis CardinalsModel lean

61%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +1 pts home

Starting pitcher matchup · leans home
True team quality gap · leans home
Bullpen quality · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers

American Family Field

6:10 PM UTC

Minnesota Twins

37%

Milwaukee BrewersModel lean

63%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market -5.9 pts home

Starting pitcher mismatch · leans home
Underlying team strength · leans home
Bullpen depth · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins

loanDepot park

5:40 PM UTC

Los Angeles Angels

40%

Miami MarlinsModel lean

60%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +1.5 pts home

Starting pitcher mismatch · leans home
True talent vs record · leans home
Bullpen depth · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals

Kauffman Stadium

6:10 PM UTC

Chicago CubsModel lean

58%

Kansas City Royals

42%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +2.3 pts home

Starting pitcher FIP/K-BB% gap · leans away
Team quality baseline · leans away
Roster depth losses · leans away

Graded result

Away win · Model lean correct

Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium

5:35 PM UTC

Atlanta Braves

40%

New York YankeesModel lean

60%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +2.7 pts home

Starting pitcher mismatch · leans home
Yankees missing Judge and Stanton · leans away
Underlying team quality edge to Atlanta · leans away

Graded result

Away win · Model lean incorrect

Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals

Nationals Park

4:15 PM UTC

Cincinnati Reds

40%

Washington NationalsModel lean

60%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +10.9 pts home

Starting pitcher matchup · leans home
Underlying team quality vs. record · leans home
Home field and park conditions · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

T-Mobile Park

8:10 PM UTC

Tampa Bay Rays

44%

Seattle MarinersModel lean

56%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +37.8 pts home

Known quality starter vs. unannounced Rays starter · leans home
Underlying team quality vs. record · leans home
Bullpen edge and park effects · leans home

Graded result

Away win · Model lean incorrect

Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox

Rate Field

6:10 PM UTC

Cleveland Guardians

44%

Chicago White SoxModel lean

56%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market -22.7 pts home

Starting pitcher FIP gap · leans home
Bullpen quality · leans away
Team baseline quality and park context · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park

5:35 PM UTC

Toronto Blue Jays

37%

Philadelphia PhilliesModel lean

63%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market -1.1 pts home

Starting pitcher mismatch · leans home
Team quality parity underneath the records · leans away
Park and offensive data gaps · leans home

Graded result

Home win · Model lean correct

New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates

PNC Park

5:35 PM UTC

New York Mets

43%

Pittsburgh PiratesModel lean

57%

Model win probability · low confidence · edge vs market +0.9 pts home

Starting pitcher quality (K-BB%) · leans home
Underlying team quality (Pythagorean record) · leans home
Missing offensive data / lineup uncertainty · leans home

Graded result

Away win · Model lean incorrect

Athletics @ Boston Red Sox

Fenway Park

5:35 PM UTC

Athletics

40%

Boston Red SoxModel lean

60%

Model win probability · low confidence

Team quality gap (pythagorean %) · leans home
Bullpen strength · leans home
Unknown Boston starter · leans away

Graded result

Away win · Model lean incorrect